• Offered by Rsch Sch of Finance, Actuarial Studies & App Stats
• ANU College ANU College of Business and Economics
• Course subject Statistics
• Areas of interest Actuarial Studies, Statistics
• Mode of delivery In Person
• Co-taught Course
• Offered in Second Semester 2022
Credibility Theory (STAT4036)

This course covers the fundamental concepts of: Bayesian statistics, including estimation, prediction, hypothesis testing, and decision theory; time series analysis, including estimation and prediction based on ARIMA models; credibility theory, including limited fluctuation credibility theory and the Buhlmann-Straub model; several run-off techniques for estimating an outstanding claims reserve; and Monte Carlo techniques, including the inverse transformation method, the polar method, and Monte Carlo integration.

## Learning Outcomes

Upon successful completion, students will have the knowledge and skills to:

1. Explain in detail the fundamental concepts of Bayesian statistics and use these concepts to calculate Bayesian estimators (including credibility estimators);
2. Critically analyse and apply the main concepts underlying the analysis of time series models;
3. Communicate and apply techniques for analysing a delay (or run-off) triangle and projecting the ultimate position; and,
4. Explain in detail and apply the concepts of “Monte Carlo” simulation using a series of pseudo-random numbers, including defining the basics of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.

## Indicative Assessment

1. Typical assessment may include, but is not restricted to: exams, assignments, quizzes, presentations and other assessment as appropriate. (100) [LO 1,2,3,4]

The ANU uses Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. While the use of Turnitin is not mandatory, the ANU highly recommends Turnitin is used by both teaching staff and students. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the ANU Online website.

Students are expected to commit 130 hours of work in completing this course. This includes time spent in scheduled classes and self-directed study time.

Not applicable

## Requisite and Incompatibility

Incompatible with STAT3036, STAT3057 and STAT3058.

You will need to contact the Rsch Sch of Finance, Actuarial Studies & App Stats to request a permission code to enrol in this course.

## Prescribed Texts

Information about the prescribed textbook will be available via the Class Summary.

## Fees

Tuition fees are for the academic year indicated at the top of the page.

Commonwealth Support (CSP) Students
If you have been offered a Commonwealth supported place, your fees are set by the Australian Government for each course. At ANU 1 EFTSL is 48 units (normally 8 x 6-unit courses). More information about your student contribution amount for each course at Fees

Student Contribution Band:
1
Unit value:
6 units

If you are a domestic graduate coursework student with a Domestic Tuition Fee (DTF) place or international student you will be required to pay course tuition fees (see below). Course tuition fees are indexed annually. Further information for domestic and international students about tuition and other fees can be found at Fees.

Where there is a unit range displayed for this course, not all unit options below may be available.

Units EFTSL
6.00 0.12500
Note: Please note that fee information is for current year only.

## Offerings, Dates and Class Summary Links

The list of offerings for future years is indicative only.
Class summaries, if available, can be accessed by clicking on the View link for the relevant class number.

### Second Semester

Class number Class start date Last day to enrol Census date Class end date Mode Of Delivery Class Summary
5843 25 Jul 2022 01 Aug 2022 31 Aug 2022 28 Oct 2022 In Person N/A