This course covers the fundamental concepts of: Bayesian statistics, including estimation, prediction, hypothesis testing, and decision theory; time series analysis, including estimation and prediction based on ARIMA models; credibility theory, including limited fluctuation credibility theory and the Buhlmann-Straub model; several run-off techniques for estimating an outstanding claims reserve; and Monte Carlo techniques, including the inverse transformation method, the polar method, and Monte Carlo integration.
Learning Outcomes
Upon successful completion, students will have the knowledge and skills to:
Upon successful completion of the requirements for this course, students should have theknowledge and skills to:
1. Explain in detail the fundamental concepts of Bayesian statistics and use these concepts to
calculate Bayesian estimators (including credibility estimators).
2. Define and apply the main concepts underlying the analysis of time series models.
3. Be able to communicate and apply techniques for analysing a delay (or run-off) triangle and
projecting the ultimate position.
4. Explain in detail and apply the concepts of “Monte Carlo” simulation using a series of
pseudo-random numbers. Define the basics of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.
Other Information
This course, together with STAT3035 (Risk Theory), constitutes Subject CT6 of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia. To get an exemption from the Institute, you need to get an average of at least 60% for these two courses.
See the course outline on the College courses page. Outlines are uploaded as they become available.
Indicative Assessment
Typical assessment may include, but is not restricted to: a mid-semester exam and a final exam
The ANU uses Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. While the use of Turnitin is not mandatory, the ANU highly recommends Turnitin is used by both teaching staff and students. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the ANU Online website.
Workload
Students are expected to commit at least 10 hours per week to completing the work in this course. This will include at least 3 contact hours per week and up to 7 hours of private study time.
Requisite and Incompatibility
Prescribed Texts
None.
Specialisations
Fees
Tuition fees are for the academic year indicated at the top of the page.
If you are a domestic graduate coursework or international student you will be required to pay tuition fees. Tuition fees are indexed annually. Further information for domestic and international students about tuition and other fees can be found at Fees.
- Student Contribution Band:
- 2
- Unit value:
- 6 units
If you are an undergraduate student and have been offered a Commonwealth supported place, your fees are set by the Australian Government for each course. At ANU 1 EFTSL is 48 units (normally 8 x 6-unit courses). You can find your student contribution amount for each course at Fees. Where there is a unit range displayed for this course, not all unit options below may be available.
| Units | EFTSL |
|---|---|
| 6.00 | 0.12500 |
Course fees
- Domestic fee paying students
| Year | Fee |
|---|---|
| 2018 | $3660 |
- International fee paying students
| Year | Fee |
|---|---|
| 2018 | $5160 |
Offerings, Dates and Class Summary Links
ANU utilises MyTimetable to enable students to view the timetable for their enrolled courses, browse, then self-allocate to small teaching activities / tutorials so they can better plan their time. Find out more on the Timetable webpage.
Class summaries, if available, can be accessed by clicking on the View link for the relevant class number.
Second Semester
| Class number | Class start date | Last day to enrol | Census date | Class end date | Mode Of Delivery | Class Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7672 | 23 Jul 2018 | 30 Jul 2018 | 31 Aug 2018 | 26 Oct 2018 | In Person | N/A |
