The Asia-Pacific region is changing rapidly as result of economic development, political change, and shifting international alignments. In many ways, it is the most dynamic region in the world. In this context, it is not enough for policy makers and policy advocates to understand where the region stands today. It is also vital for us to think deeply and systematically about where the region is headed tomorrow - whether the question is economic growth, environmental quality, or military conflict - even as we recognize that our ability to predict the future is limited.

This course will equip students to grapple with the challenge of making policy in a rapidly changing region by introducing them to a few key tools. It will introduce students to the study of international relations, focusing on a select number of trends that are recognized as particularly important drivers of international change. In addition, it will introduce students to the concept and practice of scenario development, a technique used widely in both the private and the public sector as a means of thinking about and preparing for the future. Students will draw on both of these tools to develop scenarios that depict key aspects of the future in the Asia-Pacific region, building on course material and on their own expertise and research. By the end of the course, students will be able to analyze international developments in their areas of interest and to advocate new policies based on their analysis.

Learning Outcomes

Upon successful completion, students will have the knowledge and skills to:

After successfully completing this course, students will be able to:
1) Demonstrate familiarity with a variety of different drivers of international change and how they shape shape international relations;
2) generate scenarios for some international problem or relationship in the Asia-Pacific
region (broadly defined);
3) analyze international developments related to the scenarios that they generate;
4) distill the implications of their scenarios for a national government of their choice;
5) convey their analysis effectively through written communication.

Staff Feedback

Students will be given feedback in the following forms in this course:

• Verbal comments in the context of informal discussions in person or by phone
• Written comments in response to emailed ideas
• Written comments and marks on submitted assessment tasks
• Verbal feedback to the whole class after the focal question and topic papers have been marked

Student Feedback

ANU is committed to the demonstration of educational excellence and regularly seeks feedback from students. Students are encouraged to offer feedback directly to their Course Convener or through their College and Course representatives (if applicable). The feedback given in these surveys is anonymous and provides the Colleges, University Education Committee and Academic Board with opportunities to recognise excellent teaching, and opportunities for improvement. The Surveys and Evaluation website provides more information on student surveys at ANU and reports on the feedback provided on ANU courses.

Class Schedule

Week/Session	Summary of Activities	Assessment
1	Week 1: Introduction
2	Week 2: Power shifts I: Declining America and Japan?
3	Week 3: Power shifts II: The rise of China
4	Week 4: Power shifts III: The rise of India
5	Week 5: Regional architecture I: nationalism and internationalism
6	Week 6: Regional architecture II: economic interdependence	Focal question due August 27
7	Week 7: Regional architecture III: alliances and institutions	Topic paper due September 15
8	Week 8: Domestic transformations I: democratization
9	Week 9: Domestic transformations II: energy and the environment
10	Week 10: Domestic transformations III: technology
11	Week 11: Class workshop
12	Week 12: No class	Final paper due November 3

Assessment Summary

Assessment task	Value	Due Date	Return of assessment	Learning Outcomes
Reading response papers	25 %	29/07/2019	12/08/2019	1, 5
Focal question	1 %	19/08/2019	27/08/2019	1
Topic paper	19 %	15/09/2019	01/10/2019	1, 5
Final paper	55 %	03/11/2019	28/11/2019	1-5

* If the Due Date and Return of Assessment date are blank, see the Assessment Tab for specific Assessment Task details

Policies

ANU has educational policies, procedures and guidelines, which are designed to ensure that staff and students are aware of the University’s academic standards, and implement them. Students are expected to have read the Academic Misconduct Rule before the commencement of their course. Other key policies and guidelines include:

• Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure
• Special Assessment Consideration Policy and General Information
• Student Surveys and Evaluations
• Deferred Examinations
• Student Complaint Resolution Policy and Procedure

Assessment Requirements

The ANU is using Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the ANU Online website Students may choose not to submit assessment items through Turnitin. In this instance you will be required to submit, alongside the assessment item itself, hard copies of all references included in the assessment item.

Moderation of Assessment

Marks that are allocated during Semester are to be considered provisional until formalised by the College examiners meeting at the end of each Semester. If appropriate, some moderation of marks might be applied prior to final results being released.

Assessment Task 1

Reading response papers

Students will submit three 500-word papers over the course of the semester that respond to the reading for the week in question. One paper is required for each segment of the course, and papers are due the day before class meets for the week in question. Further instructions regarding the nature and assessment of the papers will be given in class.

Assessment Task 2

Focal question

Students are asked to submit a brief (one or two sentence) statement of the question that will be the focus of their final paper. Submissions will be assessed for completeness (i.e., whether the statement has been submitted or not) as well as relevance to the broad themes of the course.

Assessment Task 3

Topic paper

Students are asked to submit a 1000-word paper that outlines the topic of their final paper. The focus should be the future of some international problem or relationship in the Asia-Pacific region. For example, a student might choose to write about the future of the Australia-China relationship or the future of ASEAN. This paper should reflect preliminary research and be properly referenced.

Specifically, the paper should:

• clearly state the focus of the paper
• clearly state the audience of the paper (normally a national government chosen by the student)
• clearly state the current status of the focal topic
• discuss how a relevant driver discussed in the first or second segment of the course could vary fifteen years from now
• discuss how that driver's variations could influence the focal problem or relationship.

Papers will be marked based on their success with respect to each of the above tasks, as well as clarity of expression, quality of argument, and original research

Please note that any assignment that exceeds the word limit by more than 10% will be penalized. Reference lists do not count toward the word limit, but in-text citations, footnotes, endnotes, tables, graphs, and appendices do count toward the limit.

Assessment Task 4

Final paper

The final paper will be a 4000-word essay that highlights alternative scenarios for a particular international problem or relationship fifteen years from now. The goal is not to predict what will happen, or even to assign probabilities to alternative futures, but merely to identify a few distinct possibilities and to analyze their implications for a chosen audience. More guidance on how to create scenarios will be given in class.

In general, the paper should:

• clearly state the focus of the paper
• clearly state the audience of the paper
• clearly state the current status of the focal topic
• explain what you believe to be the key driving forces for that focal problem or relationship;
• draw on those driving forces to develop multiple scenarios set fifteen years from now;
• explain how each of these different scenarios come to pass and what sorts of developments might serve as early indicators of each one;
• discuss the implications of each of these scenarios for the audience of the paper.

Papers will be marked based on their success with respect to each of the above tasks, as well as clarity of expression, quality of argument, and original research.

Please note that any assignment that exceeds the word limit by more than 10% will be penalized. Reference lists do not count toward the word limit, but in-text citations, footnotes, endnotes, tables, graphs, and appendices do count toward the limit.

Academic Integrity

Academic integrity is a core part of our culture as a community of scholars. At its heart, academic integrity is about behaving ethically. This means that all members of the community commit to honest and responsible scholarly practice and to upholding these values with respect and fairness. The Australian National University commits to embedding the values of academic integrity in our teaching and learning. We ensure that all members of our community understand how to engage in academic work in ways that are consistent with, and actively support academic integrity. The ANU expects staff and students to uphold high standards of academic integrity and act ethically and honestly, to ensure the quality and value of the qualification that you will graduate with. The University has policies and procedures in place to promote academic integrity and manage academic misconduct. Visit the following Academic honesty & plagiarism website for more information about academic integrity and what the ANU considers academic misconduct. The ANU offers a number of services to assist students with their assignments, examinations, and other learning activities. The Academic Skills and Learning Centre offers a number of workshops and seminars that you may find useful for your studies.

Online Submission

The ANU uses Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. While the use of Turnitin is not mandatory, the ANU highly recommends Turnitin is used by both teaching staff and students. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the ANU Online website.

Hardcopy Submission

For some forms of assessment (hand written assignments, art works, laboratory notes, etc.) hard copy submission is appropriate when approved by the Associate Dean (Education). Hard copy submissions must utilise the Assignment Cover Sheet. Please keep a copy of tasks completed for your records.

Late Submission

Late submission of assessment tasks without an extension are penalised at the rate of 5% of the possible marks available per working day or part thereof. Late submission of assessment tasks is not accepted after 10 working days after the due date, or on or after the date specified in the course outline for the return of the assessment item. Late submission is not accepted for take-home examinations.

Referencing Requirements

Accepted academic practice for referencing sources that you use in presentations can be found via the links on the Wattle site, under the file named “ANU and College Policies, Program Information, Student Support Services and Assessment”. Alternatively, you can seek help through the Students Learning Development website.

Extensions and Penalties

Extensions and late submission of assessment pieces are covered by the Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure The Course Convener may grant extensions for assessment pieces that are not examinations or take-home examinations. If you need an extension, you must request an extension in writing on or before the due date. If you have documented and appropriate medical evidence that demonstrates you were not able to request an extension on or before the due date, you may be able to request it after the due date.

Privacy Notice

The ANU has made a number of third party, online, databases available for students to use. Use of each online database is conditional on student end users first agreeing to the database licensor’s terms of service and/or privacy policy. Students should read these carefully. In some cases student end users will be required to register an account with the database licensor and submit personal information, including their: first name; last name; ANU email address; and other information. In cases where student end users are asked to submit ‘content’ to a database, such as an assignment or short answers, the database licensor may only use the student’s ‘content’ in accordance with the terms of service — including any (copyright) licence the student grants to the database licensor. Any personal information or content a student submits may be stored by the licensor, potentially offshore, and will be used to process the database service in accordance with the licensors terms of service and/or privacy policy. If any student chooses not to agree to the database licensor’s terms of service or privacy policy, the student will not be able to access and use the database. In these circumstances students should contact their lecturer to enquire about alternative arrangements that are available.

Distribution of grades policy

Academic Quality Assurance Committee monitors the performance of students, including attrition, further study and employment rates and grade distribution, and College reports on quality assurance processes for assessment activities, including alignment with national and international disciplinary and interdisciplinary standards, as well as qualification type learning outcomes. Since first semester 1994, ANU uses a grading scale for all courses. This grading scale is used by all academic areas of the University.

Support for students

The University offers students support through several different services. You may contact the services listed below directly or seek advice from your Course Convener, Student Administrators, or your College and Course representatives (if applicable).

• ANU Health, safety & wellbeing for medical services, counselling, mental health and spiritual support
• ANU Diversity and inclusion for students with a disability or ongoing or chronic illness
• ANU Dean of Students for confidential, impartial advice and help to resolve problems between students and the academic or administrative areas of the University
• ANU Academic Skills and Learning Centre supports you make your own decisions about how you learn and manage your workload.
• ANU Counselling Centre promotes, supports and enhances mental health and wellbeing within the University student community.
• ANUSA supports and represents undergraduate and ANU College students
• PARSA supports and represents postgraduate and research students