• Offered by Rsch Sch of Finance, Actuarial Studies & App Stats
• ANU College ANU College of Business and Economics
• Course subject Statistics
• Course convener
• Dr Bronwyn Loong
• Mode of delivery In Person
• Offered in Second Semester 2019
Introduction to Bayesian Data Analysis (STAT3016)

The Bayesian approach to statistics assigns probability distributions to both the data and unknown parameters in the problem.  This way, we can incorporate prior knowledge on the unknown parameters before observing any data.  Statistical inference is summarised by the posterior distribution of the parameters after data collection, and posterior predictions for new observations.  The Bayesian approach to statistics is very flexible because we can describe the probability distribution of any function of the unknown parameters in the model.  Modern advances in computing have allowed many complicated models, which are difficult to analyse using ‘classical’ (frequentist) methods, to be readily analysed using Bayesian methodology.

The aim of this course is to equip students with the skills to perform and interpret Bayesian statistical analyses.  The first part of the course is devoted to describing the fundamentals of Bayesian inference by examining some simple Bayesian models.  More complicated models will then be explored, including linear regression and hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework.  Bayesian computational methods, especially Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods will progressively be introduced as motivated by the models discussed.   Emphasis will also be placed on model checking and evaluation.

## Learning Outcomes

Upon successful completion, students will have the knowledge and skills to:

Upon successful completion of the requirements for this course, students should have the knowledge and skills to:

1. Explain the Bayesian framework for data analysis and its flexibility in contrast to the frequentist approach; appreciate when the Bayesian approach can be beneficial.
2. Develop, analytically describe, and implement common probability models (both single and multiparameter) in the Bayesian framework (this includes models for regression analysis and generalised linear models).
3. Appreciate the role of the prior distribution in Bayesian inference, and in particular the usage of non-informative priors and conjugate priors.
4. Interpret the results of a Bayesian analysis and perform Bayesian model evaluation and assessment.
5. Recognise the need to fit hierarchical models and provide the technical specifications for such models.
6. Perform Bayesian computation using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods using R.
7. Formulate a Bayesian solution to real-data problems.
8. Communicate complex statistical ideas to a diverse audience.
9. Demonstrate the necessary research skills to form a hypothesis, collect and analyse data, and reach appropriate conclusions.

## Indicative Assessment

Typical assessment may include, but is not restricted to: assignments and a final project.

The ANU uses Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. While the use of Turnitin is not mandatory, the ANU highly recommends Turnitin is used by both teaching staff and students. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the ANU Online website.

Students are expected to commit at least 10 hours per week to completing the work in this course. This will include at least 3 contact hours per week and up to 7 hours of private study time.

## Requisite and Incompatibility

To enrol in this course you must have completed STAT2008 or STAT2014 and have completed or be concurrently enrolled in STAT2001 or STAT2013.

## Fees

Tuition fees are for the academic year indicated at the top of the page.

If you are a domestic graduate coursework or international student you will be required to pay tuition fees. Tuition fees are indexed annually. Further information for domestic and international students about tuition and other fees can be found at Fees.

Student Contribution Band:
2
Unit value:
6 units

If you are an undergraduate student and have been offered a Commonwealth supported place, your fees are set by the Australian Government for each course. At ANU 1 EFTSL is 48 units (normally 8 x 6-unit courses). You can find your student contribution amount for each course at Fees.  Where there is a unit range displayed for this course, not all unit options below may be available.

Units EFTSL
6.00 0.12500

## Course fees

Domestic fee paying students
Year Fee
2019 \$3840
International fee paying students
Year Fee
2019 \$5460
Note: Please note that fee information is for current year only.

## Offerings, Dates and Class Summary Links

ANU utilises MyTimetable to enable students to view the timetable for their enrolled courses, browse, then self-allocate to small teaching activities / tutorials so they can better plan their time. Find out more on the Timetable webpage.

The list of offerings for future years is indicative only.
Class summaries, if available, can be accessed by clicking on the View link for the relevant class number.

### Second Semester

Class number Class start date Last day to enrol Census date Class end date Mode Of Delivery Class Summary
8374 22 Jul 2019 29 Jul 2019 31 Aug 2019 25 Oct 2019 In Person View