This course continues coverage of techniques for risk modelling beyond those introduced in Risk Modelling 1, with an emphasis on application to insurance portfolios and financial risks.

Learning Outcomes

Upon successful completion, students will have the knowledge and skills to:

Upon successful completion of the requirements for this course, students will be able to:

1. Describe and calculate a range of measures of investment risk, and how insurance companies reduce risk.
2. Describe and utilise compound Poisson processes to calculate the probability of ruin for a variety of insurance portfolios.
3. Describe and utilise run-off triangle methods for valuing insurance liabilities.
4. Describe and demonstrate knowledge and understanding of models for credit risk.

 

Research-Led Teaching

Gaurav has many years of professional practice and active research. He also has the relevant background in the field of valuation and risk management. The course will address current issues of interest and current approaches to actuarial practice in valuation and risk management.

Examination Material or equipment

Due to the impacts of COVID-19, the final exam will likely be held as a take home exams with limited timeframes and using the Proctorio online invigilation software. Students will need to have access to R and Word. Further information on examination material will be provided to students on Wattle. The final exam will be held in the exam period with details be advised no later than teaching week 12 of the semester.

Required Resources

Comprehensive lecture notes and lecture slides will be made available on Wattle.

In many weeks of this course, we will be using Excel spreadsheets and the statistical software R, in class to demonstrate various aspects of the course, so please ensure you have access to these software on your device.

Access to Excel is free for ANU students though the ANU IT database. R is a free license software, and was used in STAT8057 - Risk Modelling 1. Details of access to R (https://www.r-project.org/) would be provided on Wattle if necessary.

Recommended Resources

There are no prescribed texts besides the lecture notes, however, there are optional texts available. Details of these will be provided in Wattle.

Staff Feedback

Students will be given feedback in the following forms in this course:

• written comments
• verbal comments
• feedback to whole class, groups, individuals, focus group etc

Student Feedback

ANU is committed to the demonstration of educational excellence and regularly seeks feedback from students. Students are encouraged to offer feedback directly to their Course Convener or through their College and Course representatives (if applicable). The feedback given in these surveys is anonymous and provides the Colleges, University Education Committee and Academic Board with opportunities to recognise excellent teaching, and opportunities for improvement. The Surveys and Evaluation website provides more information on student surveys at ANU and reports on the feedback provided on ANU courses.

Other Information

Assessment Requirements

As a further academic integrity control, students may be selected for a 15 minute individual oral examination of their written assessment submissions.

Any student identified, either during the current semester or in retrospect, as having used ghost writing services will be investigated under the University’s Academic Misconduct Rule.

Class Schedule

Week/Session	Summary of Activities	Assessment
1	Introduction to the Course Risk and Insurance Companies
2	Continuous Time Models Review Credit Risk Models
3	Credit Risk Models
4	Credit Risk Models
5	Run-off Triangles	Assignment 1 Due
6	Run-off Triangles	Mid-semester Exam (week 6 or 7)
7	Run-off Triangles	Mid-semester Exam (week 6 or 7)
8	Ruin Theory
9	Ruin Theory
10	Ruin Theory
11	Ruin Theory	Assignment 2 Due
12	Review and Catch up

Assessment Summary

Assessment task	Value	Due Date	Return of assessment	Learning Outcomes
Assignment 1	5 %	27/08/2020	04/09/2020	1,4
Mid-semester exam	20 %	05/09/2020	02/10/2020	1,4
Assignment 2	20 %	22/10/2020	02/11/2020	1,3,4
End of Semester Exam	55 %	05/11/2020	02/12/2020	1,2,3,4

* If the Due Date and Return of Assessment date are blank, see the Assessment Tab for specific Assessment Task details

Policies

ANU has educational policies, procedures and guidelines, which are designed to ensure that staff and students are aware of the University’s academic standards, and implement them. Students are expected to have read the Academic Misconduct Rule before the commencement of their course. Other key policies and guidelines include:

• Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure
• Special Assessment Consideration Policy and General Information 
• Student Surveys and Evaluations
• Deferred Examinations
• Student Complaint Resolution Policy and Procedure

Assessment Requirements

The ANU is using Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the Academic Integrity . In rare cases where online submission using Turnitin software is not technically possible; or where not using Turnitin software has been justified by the Course Convener and approved by the Associate Dean (Education) on the basis of the teaching model being employed; students shall submit assessment online via ‘Wattle’ outside of Turnitin, or failing that in hard copy, or through a combination of submission methods as approved by the Associate Dean (Education). The submission method is detailed below.

Moderation of Assessment

Marks that are allocated during Semester are to be considered provisional until formalised by the College examiners meeting at the end of each Semester. If appropriate, some moderation of marks might be applied prior to final results being released.

Examination(s)

The course includes formal examination through a mid-semester and final examination as described above. 

Assessment Task 1

Assignment 1

Assignment 1 will cover materials from week 1-4 (upto and including Credit Risk Modelling). The assignment will require answers to some problem solving.

Questions will be available on Wattle by CoB 07.08.2020.

Value: 5%

Due date and time: Thursday 27 August. 3 pm (week 5)

Assessment Task 2

Mid-semester exam

Details of task:

The Mid-Semester Exam will be 3 hours. Please note that the Mid-Semester Exam is redeemable and aims to provide an exercise in sitting remote exams.

Value: 20% or 0%

Date: Centrally timetabled. The Mid-Semester Exam will be scheduled for Week 6 or Week 7, however, this date may change depending on room availability. Further details relating to the exam will be provided closer to the scheduled date. Centrally timetabled examinations through Examinations, Graduations & Prizes will be timetabled prior to the examination period. Please check ANU Timetabling for further information.

Assessment Task 3

Assignment 2

Details of task: Students will be required to analyse a data set and answer the provided questions. Microsoft Excel and R are expected to be used. This will include materials upto and including (Run-off triangles)

Questions will be available on Wattle by CoB 25.09.2020.

Word limit: TBA

Value: 20%

Due date and time: Thursday 22 October 4 pm (Week 11)

Assessment Task 4

End of Semester Exam

Details of task:

The Final Exam will be 4 hours. The Final Exam is compulsory. Further details relating to the Exam will be provided closer to the scheduled date.

Value: 55% or 75%

Date: Centrally timetabled. Centrally timetabled examinations through Examinations, Graduations & Prizes will be timetabled prior to the examination period. Please check ANU Timetabling for further information.

Academic Integrity

Academic integrity is a core part of the ANU culture as a community of scholars. At its heart, academic integrity is about behaving ethically, committing to honest and responsible scholarly practice and upholding these values with respect and fairness.

The ANU commits to assisting all members of our community to understand how to engage in academic work in ways that are consistent with, and actively support academic integrity. The ANU expects staff and students to be familiar with the academic integrity principle and Academic Misconduct Rule, uphold high standards of academic integrity and act ethically and honestly, to ensure the quality and value of the qualification that you will graduate with.

The Academic Misconduct Rule is in place to promote academic integrity and manage academic misconduct. Very minor breaches of the academic integrity principle may result in a reduction of marks of up to 10% of the total marks available for the assessment. The ANU offers a number of online and in person services to assist students with their assignments, examinations, and other learning activities. Visit the Academic Skills website for more information about academic integrity, your responsibilities and for assistance with your assignments, writing skills and study.

Online Submission

You will be required to electronically sign a declaration as part of the submission of your assignment. Please keep a copy of the assignment for your records. Unless an exemption has been approved by the Associate Dean (Education) submission must be through Turnitin.

Assignment 1 will consist of numerical problem solving. You can submit a handwritten or a typed document (preferred). Details on how to submit handwritten assignments will be provided on Wattle.

Assignment 2 submission will consist of a report and software related files (R and Excel) uploaded to Wattle to the relevant Assignment activity. Details on how to submit handwritten assignments will be provided on Wattle.

Hardcopy Submission

No hard copy assignment submissions are accepted.

Late Submission

Individual assessment tasks may or may not allow for late submission. Policy regarding late submission is detailed below:

• Late submission not permitted. If submission of assessment tasks without an extension after the due date is not permitted, a mark of 0 will be awarded.

Referencing Requirements

Accepted academic practice for referencing sources that you use in presentations can be found via the links on the Wattle site, under the file named “ANU and College Policies, Program Information, Student Support Services and Assessment”. Alternatively, you can seek help through the Students Learning Development website.

Returning Assignments

Marked assignments will be returned as soon as they are marked (usually a week), either in class time, or via email or Wattle to individual students.

Extensions and Penalties

Extensions and late submission of assessment pieces are covered by the Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure. Extensions may be granted for assessment pieces that are not examinations or take-home examinations. If you need an extension, you must request an extension in writing on or before the due date. If you have documented and appropriate medical evidence that demonstrates you were not able to request an extension on or before the due date, you may be able to request it after the due date.

Resubmission of Assignments

Students will not be permitted to resubmit assignments.  

Privacy Notice

The ANU has made a number of third party, online, databases available for students to use. Use of each online database is conditional on student end users first agreeing to the database licensor’s terms of service and/or privacy policy. Students should read these carefully. In some cases student end users will be required to register an account with the database licensor and submit personal information, including their: first name; last name; ANU email address; and other information.
In cases where student end users are asked to submit ‘content’ to a database, such as an assignment or short answers, the database licensor may only use the student’s ‘content’ in accordance with the terms of service – including any (copyright) licence the student grants to the database licensor. Any personal information or content a student submits may be stored by the licensor, potentially offshore, and will be used to process the database service in accordance with the licensors terms of service and/or privacy policy.
If any student chooses not to agree to the database licensor’s terms of service or privacy policy, the student will not be able to access and use the database. In these circumstances students should contact their lecturer to enquire about alternative arrangements that are available.

Distribution of grades policy

Academic Quality Assurance Committee monitors the performance of students, including attrition, further study and employment rates and grade distribution, and College reports on quality assurance processes for assessment activities, including alignment with national and international disciplinary and interdisciplinary standards, as well as qualification type learning outcomes.

Since first semester 1994, ANU uses a grading scale for all courses. This grading scale is used by all academic areas of the University.

Support for students

The University offers students support through several different services. You may contact the services listed below directly or seek advice from your Course Convener, Student Administrators, or your College and Course representatives (if applicable).

• ANU Health, safety & wellbeing for medical services, counselling, mental health and spiritual support
• ANU Diversity and inclusion for students with a disability or ongoing or chronic illness
• ANU Dean of Students for confidential, impartial advice and help to resolve problems between students and the academic or administrative areas of the University
• ANU Academic Skills and Learning Centre supports you make your own decisions about how you learn and manage your workload.
• ANU Counselling Centre promotes, supports and enhances mental health and wellbeing within the University student community.
• ANUSA supports and represents undergraduate and ANU College students
• PARSA supports and represents postgraduate and research students