Accurate forecasting of future events and their outcomes is a crucial input into a successful business or economic planning process. This course provides an introduction to the application of various forecasting techniques. The methods include trend curve extrapolation, smoothing, autoregressions, regression modelling, leading indicators. The course also looks at techniques for the evaluation of performance of forecasting methods and examines the role of forecasts in the decision making process. Students will learn how to use the various techniques in real world forecasting applications.
 

Learning Outcomes

Upon successful completion, students will have the knowledge and skills to:

1. demonstrate an in-depth understanding of the various important concepts in forecasting and different approaches for modelling, trend, seasonality and persistence.
2. use the analytical tools that econometricians employ to analyse data
3. Tailor-make models for their applications and use them to produce forecasts
4. Complete programming tasks, including reading and modifying existing codes

Research-Led Teaching

Theory and examples covered in the course are derived from research in the field of economics and time series analysis. In addition, students will have the opportunity to themselves engage in a major research task where they produce and evaluate forecasts on a time series of their choice.

Examination Material or equipment

This course has no examinations.

Required Resources

Textbook: Diebold, F., Forecasting in Economics, Business, Finance and Beyond. Available free online.

Programming Language: MATLAB. This is available for free download using the ANU license.

Staff Feedback

Students will be given feedback in the following forms in this course:

• Help Desk/Consultation/Office Hours times are available every week for students to seek feedback on their work
• General feedback on the assignments will be given to the class as a whole
• Some limited personal written comments on individual assignments may also be given to assignments

Student Feedback

ANU is committed to the demonstration of educational excellence and regularly seeks feedback from students. Students are encouraged to offer feedback directly to their Course Convener or through their College and Course representatives (if applicable). The feedback given in these surveys is anonymous and provides the Colleges, University Education Committee and Academic Board with opportunities to recognise excellent teaching, and opportunities for improvement. The Surveys and Evaluation website provides more information on student surveys at ANU and reports on the feedback provided on ANU courses.

Class Schedule

Week/Session	Summary of Activities	Assessment
1	Introduction to Forecasting
2	Introduction to Forecasting
3	Ad Hoc Forecasting Models
4	Ad Hoc Forecasting Models	Assignment 1 due week 4
5	Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Grad Seminar 1
6	Maximum Likelihood Estimation
7	Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Grad Seminar 2
8	ARMA Models	Assignment 2 due week 8
9	ARMA Models, Grad Seminar 3
10	ARMA Models
11	State Space Models	Assignment 3 due week 11
12	State Space Models	Personal Project due 'Week 13'

Tutorial Registration

Tutorials this semester will be delivered both remotely (via Zoom) and on-campus. You are expected to attend one tutorial each week from Week 2 onwards. You must enrol in a tutorial using the Wattle site for this course, and attend the tutorial in which you are enrolled. A selection of tutorials will be open for enrolment in O-week - the remaining tutorials will be open in week 1 of Semester. When tutorials are available for enrolment, follow these steps:

1.   Log on to Wattle, and go to the course site

2.   Click on the link “Tutorial enrolment”

3.   On the right of the screen, click on the tab “Become Member of…..” for the tutorial class you wish to enter

4.   Confirm your choice

If you need to change your enrolment, you will be able to do so by clicking on the tab “Leave group….” and then re-enrol in another group. You will not be able to enrol in groups that have reached their maximum number. Please note that enrolment in ISIS must be finalised for you to have access to Wattle.

Assessment Summary

Assessment task	Value	Due Date	Return of assessment	Learning Outcomes
Assignment 1	20 %	20/08/2021	03/09/2021	1,2,3
Assignment 2	20 %	01/10/2021	15/10/2021	1,2,3
Assignment 3	20 %	23/10/2021	05/11/2021	1,2,3
Major Project	40 %	*	*	1,2,3

* If the Due Date and Return of Assessment date are blank, see the Assessment Tab for specific Assessment Task details

Policies

ANU has educational policies, procedures and guidelines, which are designed to ensure that staff and students are aware of the University’s academic standards, and implement them. Students are expected to have read the Academic Misconduct Rule before the commencement of their course. Other key policies and guidelines include:

• Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure
• Special Assessment Consideration Policy and General Information 
• Student Surveys and Evaluations
• Deferred Examinations
• Student Complaint Resolution Policy and Procedure

Assessment Requirements

The ANU is using Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the Academic Integrity . In rare cases where online submission using Turnitin software is not technically possible; or where not using Turnitin software has been justified by the Course Convener and approved by the Associate Dean (Education) on the basis of the teaching model being employed; students shall submit assessment online via ‘Wattle’ outside of Turnitin, or failing that in hard copy, or through a combination of submission methods as approved by the Associate Dean (Education). The submission method is detailed below.

Moderation of Assessment

Marks that are allocated during Semester are to be considered provisional until formalised by the College examiners meeting at the end of each Semester. If appropriate, some moderation of marks might be applied prior to final results being released.

Participation

Due to travel restrictions this course will be delivered through a mix of on-campus and online platforms. Aspects of the delivery will be asynchronous. However, there will be synchronous activities also taking place (both online and on campus). Details on the delivery of this course and expectations of student participation are outlined in further detail on the Wattle course site in O-week. Attendance at synchronous activities, while not compulsory, is expected in line with “Code of Practice for Teaching and Learning”, clause 2 paragraph (b).

Course content will be delivered primarily through pre-recorded lecture modules, supplemented by a weekly workshop. Both a face-to-face and online version of the workshop will be available.

Tutorials will be a mix of theoretical and applied analysis. As the purpose of programming/applied problems is to have students work with the software, 'solutions' to computer lab problems may not be provided.

Examination(s)

None

Assessment Task 1

Assignment 1

This is a take-home assignment consisting of a mixture of theory and applied work in forecasting. They will be submitted using Turnitin on Wattle. This assignment is worth 20%. Further details on the assignment will be given on Wattle, no later than two weeks before the due date.

Assessment Task 2

Assignment 2

This is a take-home assignment consisting of a mixture of theory and applied work in forecasting. They will be submitted using Turnitin on Wattle. This assignment is worth 20%. Further details on the assignment will be given on Wattle, no later than two weeks before the due date.

Assessment Task 3

Assignment 3

This is a take-home assignment consisting of a mixture of theory and applied work in forecasting. They will be submitted using Turnitin on Wattle. This assignment is worth 20%. Further details on the assignment will be given on Wattle, no later than two weeks before the due date.

Assessment Task 4

Major Project

In this work you will produce an original forecast using a data series of your choice, and compare your forecast to the actual data when it is released. The Honours version of the project will also require students to develop/research and justify new forecasting methods beyond those covered in class. The major project is worth 40%. Further details on the assignment will be given on Wattle by the end of Week 3.

The main report of the Major Project will be due during the final exam period, as it is the main summative assessment for the course.

Academic Integrity

Academic integrity is a core part of the ANU culture as a community of scholars. At its heart, academic integrity is about behaving ethically, committing to honest and responsible scholarly practice and upholding these values with respect and fairness.

The ANU commits to assisting all members of our community to understand how to engage in academic work in ways that are consistent with, and actively support academic integrity. The ANU expects staff and students to be familiar with the academic integrity principle and Academic Misconduct Rule, uphold high standards of academic integrity and act ethically and honestly, to ensure the quality and value of the qualification that you will graduate with.

The Academic Misconduct Rule is in place to promote academic integrity and manage academic misconduct. Very minor breaches of the academic integrity principle may result in a reduction of marks of up to 10% of the total marks available for the assessment. The ANU offers a number of online and in person services to assist students with their assignments, examinations, and other learning activities. Visit the Academic Skills website for more information about academic integrity, your responsibilities and for assistance with your assignments, writing skills and study.

Online Submission

You will be required to electronically sign a declaration as part of the submission of your assignment. Please keep a copy of the assignment for your records. Unless an exemption has been approved by the Associate Dean (Education) submission must be through Turnitin.

Hardcopy Submission

For some forms of assessment (hand written assignments, art works, laboratory notes, etc.) hard copy submission is appropriate when approved by the Associate Dean (Education). Hard copy submissions must utilise the Assignment Cover Sheet. Please keep a copy of tasks completed for your records.

Late Submission

Individual assessment tasks may or may not allow for late submission. Policy regarding late submission is detailed below:

• Late submission not permitted. If submission of assessment tasks without an extension after the due date is not permitted, a mark of 0 will be awarded.

Referencing Requirements

Accepted academic practice for referencing sources that you use in presentations can be found via the links on the Wattle site, under the file named “ANU and College Policies, Program Information, Student Support Services and Assessment”. Alternatively, you can seek help through the Students Learning Development website.

Returning Assignments

Assignments will be returned through Wattle.

Extensions and Penalties

Extensions and late submission of assessment pieces are covered by the Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure. Extensions may be granted for assessment pieces that are not examinations or take-home examinations. If you need an extension, you must request an extension in writing on or before the due date. If you have documented and appropriate medical evidence that demonstrates you were not able to request an extension on or before the due date, you may be able to request it after the due date.

Resubmission of Assignments

No resubmission of assignments will be permitted.

Privacy Notice

The ANU has made a number of third party, online, databases available for students to use. Use of each online database is conditional on student end users first agreeing to the database licensor’s terms of service and/or privacy policy. Students should read these carefully. In some cases student end users will be required to register an account with the database licensor and submit personal information, including their: first name; last name; ANU email address; and other information.
In cases where student end users are asked to submit ‘content’ to a database, such as an assignment or short answers, the database licensor may only use the student’s ‘content’ in accordance with the terms of service – including any (copyright) licence the student grants to the database licensor. Any personal information or content a student submits may be stored by the licensor, potentially offshore, and will be used to process the database service in accordance with the licensors terms of service and/or privacy policy.
If any student chooses not to agree to the database licensor’s terms of service or privacy policy, the student will not be able to access and use the database. In these circumstances students should contact their lecturer to enquire about alternative arrangements that are available.

Distribution of grades policy

Academic Quality Assurance Committee monitors the performance of students, including attrition, further study and employment rates and grade distribution, and College reports on quality assurance processes for assessment activities, including alignment with national and international disciplinary and interdisciplinary standards, as well as qualification type learning outcomes.

Since first semester 1994, ANU uses a grading scale for all courses. This grading scale is used by all academic areas of the University.

Support for students

The University offers students support through several different services. You may contact the services listed below directly or seek advice from your Course Convener, Student Administrators, or your College and Course representatives (if applicable).

• ANU Health, safety & wellbeing for medical services, counselling, mental health and spiritual support
• ANU Diversity and inclusion for students with a disability or ongoing or chronic illness
• ANU Dean of Students for confidential, impartial advice and help to resolve problems between students and the academic or administrative areas of the University
• ANU Academic Skills and Learning Centre supports you make your own decisions about how you learn and manage your workload.
• ANU Counselling Centre promotes, supports and enhances mental health and wellbeing within the University student community.
• ANUSA supports and represents undergraduate and ANU College students
• PARSA supports and represents postgraduate and research students