This course covers the fundamental concepts of: Bayesian statistics, including estimation, prediction, hypothesis testing, and decision theory; time series analysis, including estimation and prediction based on ARIMA models; credibility theory, including limited fluctuation credibility theory and the Buhlmann-Straub model; several run-off techniques for estimating an outstanding claims reserve; and Monte Carlo techniques, including the inverse transformation method, the polar method, and Monte Carlo integration.
Learning Outcomes
Upon successful completion, students will have the knowledge and skills to:
- Explain the fundamental concepts of Bayesian statistics and use these concepts to calculate Bayesian estimators (including credibility estimators);
- Define and apply the main concepts underlying the analysis of time series models;
- Describe and apply techniques for analysing a delay (or run-off) triangle and projecting the ultimate position; and
- Explain and apply the concepts of “Monte Carlo” simulation using a series of pseudo-random numbers.
Indicative Assessment
- Typical assessment may include, but is not restricted to: exams, assignments, quizzes, presentations and other assessment as appropriate (100) [LO 1,2,3,4]
The ANU uses Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. While the use of Turnitin is not mandatory, the ANU highly recommends Turnitin is used by both teaching staff and students. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the ANU Online website.
Workload
Students are expected to commit 130 hours of work in completing this course. This includes time spent in scheduled classes and self-directed study time.
Inherent Requirements
Not applicable
Requisite and Incompatibility
Prescribed Texts
Information about the prescribed textbook will be available via the Class Summary.
Fees
Tuition fees are for the academic year indicated at the top of the page.
Commonwealth Support (CSP) Students
If you have been offered a Commonwealth supported place, your fees are set by the Australian Government for each course. At ANU 1 EFTSL is 48 units (normally 8 x 6-unit courses). More information about your student contribution amount for each course at Fees.
- Student Contribution Band:
- 1
- Unit value:
- 6 units
If you are a domestic graduate coursework student with a Domestic Tuition Fee (DTF) place or international student you will be required to pay course tuition fees (see below). Course tuition fees are indexed annually. Further information for domestic and international students about tuition and other fees can be found at Fees.
Where there is a unit range displayed for this course, not all unit options below may be available.
| Units | EFTSL |
|---|---|
| 6.00 | 0.12500 |
Course fees
- Domestic fee paying students
| Year | Fee |
|---|---|
| 2021 | $4110 |
- International fee paying students
| Year | Fee |
|---|---|
| 2021 | $5880 |
Offerings, Dates and Class Summary Links
ANU utilises MyTimetable to enable students to view the timetable for their enrolled courses, browse, then self-allocate to small teaching activities / tutorials so they can better plan their time. Find out more on the Timetable webpage.
