The processes of birth, death and migration shape the size and structure of a population in constantly changing ways. This course covers the methods used to project the structure of the population, and the way inputs about the future of demographic processes, such as fertility and mortality, are provided. Population dynamics involve understanding and interpreting the changing population structure by analyzing the interplay between demographic processes, themselves depending on socio-economic and other factors. However, population dynamics also transform many aspects of social and economic life, thus creating a process of permanent renewal. Topics that will be covered in this course are: population models, epidemiological transition, ageing, lowest low fertility, demographic dividends and other specific aspects of population dynamics.

Learning Outcomes

Upon successful completion, students will have the knowledge and skills to:

1. generate justifiable future series of demographic processes;
2. demonstrate and interpret how fertility, mortality and migration affect population change;
3. review and critique research on population projections and population dynamics; and
4. prepare demographic calculations using the R software program.

Recommended Resources

The prescribed textbook for this course is:

Preston, S.H., Heuveline, P., and Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling. Population Processes. Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishers Ltd.

The textbook can be purchased in hardcopy (from bookshop on campus).

In addition to the textbook readings, students are required to have read the assigned weekly readings prior to class. All non-textbook readings can be downloaded from the course Wattle site. Further, it is expected that students will read more widely to support their assessment tasks. Additional resources, which support weekly topics, are provided on Wattle.

To enrol in this course it is highly recommended to have some previous knowledge on demographic methods. For example, having completed DEMO8008, or with permission from the convenor after having covered some part of the free online material at the IUSSP webpage: Population Analysis for Policies & Programmes:

http://papp.iussp.org/index.html

Previous knowledge on R software is not a prerequisite, but students are encouraged to familiarize themselves with it, see for example:

https://www.youtube.com/c/rprogramming101

Staff Feedback

Students will be given feedback in the following forms in this course:

• written comments
• verbal comments
• feedback to whole class, groups, individuals, focus group etc

Student Feedback

ANU is committed to the demonstration of educational excellence and regularly seeks feedback from students. Students are encouraged to offer feedback directly to their Course Convener or through their College and Course representatives (if applicable). The feedback given in these surveys is anonymous and provides the Colleges, University Education Committee and Academic Board with opportunities to recognise excellent teaching, and opportunities for improvement. The Surveys and Evaluation website provides more information on student surveys at ANU and reports on the feedback provided on ANU courses.

Other Information

Assessments should not exceed the assigned word (or time, where applicable) limit and should be formatted as per below:

Use the in-text American Psychological Association (APA) citation format (see for example http://guides.is.uwa.edu.au/apa).

Where applicable, number pages and use 1.5 spaced typing.

Always proofread your written work prior to submission.

Students must appropriately cite and reference all sources used in assessment. Failure to do so will result in formal consideration of poor academic performance and/or academic misconduct by the Course Convener. The Course Convener, when deemed necessary, will refer cases to the Academic Standards & Quality Office.

Class Schedule

Week/Session	Summary of Activities	Assessment
1	Course introduction and demography review
2	Population growth	Assignment 1, Opens
3	Population theories
4	Fertility changes	Assignment 2, Opens
5	Fertility forecasting
6	Mortality changes	Assignment 3, Opens
7	Mortality forecasting
8	Population projection	Assignment 4, Opens
9	Multi-regional projections
10	Population ageing	Assignment 5, Opens
11	Demographic dividends
12	Class Presentations (Assignment 7)	Assignment 6, Opens

Assessment Summary

Assessment task	Value	Learning Outcomes
Unfinished R program from class + description of the results	20 %	1,2,3,4
Title and Abstract of Final Project (FP)	10 %	1,2,3,4
Introduction and data used of Final Project (FP)	10 %	1,2,3,4
Methods + Preliminary results of Final Project (FP)	10 %	1,2,3,4
Results and Discussion of Final Project (FP)	10 %	1,2,3,4
Oral presentation of Final Project (FP)	20 %	1,2,3,4
Submission of Final Project (FP)	20 %	1,2,3,4

* If the Due Date and Return of Assessment date are blank, see the Assessment Tab for specific Assessment Task details

Policies

ANU has educational policies, procedures and guidelines, which are designed to ensure that staff and students are aware of the University’s academic standards, and implement them. Students are expected to have read the Academic Misconduct Rule before the commencement of their course. Other key policies and guidelines include:

• Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure
• Special Assessment Consideration Policy and General Information 
• Student Surveys and Evaluations
• Deferred Examinations
• Student Complaint Resolution Policy and Procedure

Assessment Requirements

The ANU is using Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the Academic Integrity . In rare cases where online submission using Turnitin software is not technically possible; or where not using Turnitin software has been justified by the Course Convener and approved by the Associate Dean (Education) on the basis of the teaching model being employed; students shall submit assessment online via ‘Wattle’ outside of Turnitin, or failing that in hard copy, or through a combination of submission methods as approved by the Associate Dean (Education). The submission method is detailed below.

Moderation of Assessment

Marks that are allocated during Semester are to be considered provisional until formalised by the College examiners meeting at the end of each Semester. If appropriate, some moderation of marks might be applied prior to final results being released.

Participation

Active student participation each week is expected. Students are expected to prepare reading material in advance as well as complete the R computer class at home if not finalised during the lecture hours.

Assessment Task 1

Unfinished R program from class + description of the results

Students will need to briefly explain their results from the R calculations of the day: one Figure + 200 words explanation of the Figures results.

Assessment Rubrics

Word limit (maximum): One Figure + 200 words

Value: 20% Presentation requirements: The goal of this exercise is to confirm that students are following all the weekly work of the introduced new methods.

Assessment for this task will be throughout the semester.

Assessment Task 2

Title and Abstract of Final Project (FP)

Students will need to briefly explain a project that they will carry on during the semester based on the material that we will be studying. Since the course includes all aspects of demography (births, deaths and migration), the goal of the first task is to identify areas of interest, which later in the semester will be further polished with the material learned. Note: students are allowed to change later own their initial proposals.

Assessment Rubrics

Word limit (maximum): 500

Value: 10%

Presentation requirements: The content of the abstract should be clear and able to justify the topic under study. The research goal should be clearly presented and speculations of possible outcomes should also be made available.

Estimated return date: 1 week after due date.

Assessment Task 3

Introduction and data used of Final Project (FP)

An extended introduction will justify the topic of research as well as how the research question will bring further knowledge. The introduction should cite some of the demographic literature on the topic. Students will need to briefly explain the data to be used in

the project: showing that access to the information has been obtained (for example, describing the available information). Students will be only graded from Task 2, but the abstract from Task 1 should also be handed in. Note: students are allowed to change later own their initial proposals.

Assessment Rubrics

Word limit (max): 1000

Value: 10%

Presentation requirements: The content of the introduction should aligned with the previously handed in abstract (or the updated abstract should reflect that). Specifics on how the data will help to answer the research question should be part of the data description.

Estimated return date: 1 week after due date.

Assessment Task 4

Methods + Preliminary results of Final Project (FP)

The methods should be clearly stated with brief presentation of the main equations used and how they relate to the research goal. Some basic results should be included in this part of the Final Project. Students will be only graded from Task 3, but the abstract, introduction and data from Tasks 1-2 should also be handed in. Note: this is the last opportunity for students to change their initial proposals.

Assessment Rubrics

Word limit (max): 1000, equation used in the analysis expected

Value: 10%

Presentation requirements: The content of the Methods and preliminary results, should go along those presented for the previous sections.

Estimated return date: 1 week after due date.

Assessment Task 5

Results and Discussion of Final Project (FP)

The results and discussion parts of the final project should be included here and used to show how they answer some of the research questions posted in the introduction. Thus, results should be mainly about description of Figures and Tables included there, while the discussion should bring together the conversation of the state of the art with the results attained. Students will be only graded from Task 4, but the abstract, introduction, data and methods from Tasks 1-3 should also be handed in.

Assessment Rubrics

Word limit (max): 1000, maximum 3 Figures and 2 Tables (or 2F and 3T)

Value: 10%

Presentation requirements: The content of the results and discussion sections, should go along those presented for the previous sections.

Estimated return date: 1 week after due date.

Assessment Task 6

Oral presentation of Final Project (FP)

Each student will have 15min to present her/his research followed by 7min in class discussion. The presentation should include all parts of the project: introduction,

research question, data description, methods, results, and discussion. We might have external examiners to come and help us assess the presenters.

Assessment Rubrics

Value: 20%

Presentation requirements: only 15min will be allocated for each presentation, and students should prepare accordingly with a maximum of 15 slides.

Estimated return date: In class discussion.

Assessment Task 7

Submission of Final Project (FP)

Word limit: Maximum 4000 words.

Value: 20%

Estimated return date: 1 week after due date.

Academic Integrity

Academic integrity is a core part of the ANU culture as a community of scholars. At its heart, academic integrity is about behaving ethically, committing to honest and responsible scholarly practice and upholding these values with respect and fairness.

The ANU commits to assisting all members of our community to understand how to engage in academic work in ways that are consistent with, and actively support academic integrity. The ANU expects staff and students to be familiar with the academic integrity principle and Academic Misconduct Rule, uphold high standards of academic integrity and act ethically and honestly, to ensure the quality and value of the qualification that you will graduate with.

The Academic Misconduct Rule is in place to promote academic integrity and manage academic misconduct. Very minor breaches of the academic integrity principle may result in a reduction of marks of up to 10% of the total marks available for the assessment. The ANU offers a number of online and in person services to assist students with their assignments, examinations, and other learning activities. Visit the Academic Skills website for more information about academic integrity, your responsibilities and for assistance with your assignments, writing skills and study.

Online Submission

You will be required to electronically sign a declaration as part of the submission of your assignment. Please keep a copy of the assignment for your records. Unless an exemption has been approved by the Associate Dean (Education) submission must be through Turnitin.

Hardcopy Submission

For some forms of assessment (hand written assignments, art works, laboratory notes, etc.) hard copy submission is appropriate when approved by the Associate Dean (Education). Hard copy submissions must utilise the Assignment Cover Sheet. Please keep a copy of tasks completed for your records.

Late Submission

Individual assessment tasks may or may not allow for late submission. Policy regarding late submission is detailed below:

• Late submission not permitted. If submission of assessment tasks without an extension after the due date is not permitted, a mark of 0 will be awarded.
• Late submission permitted. Late submission of assessment tasks without an extension are penalised at the rate of 5% of the possible marks available per working day or part thereof. Late submission of assessment tasks is not accepted after 10 working days after the due date, or on or after the date specified in the course outline for the return of the assessment item. Late submission is not accepted for take-home examinations.

Referencing Requirements

Accepted academic practice for referencing sources that you use in presentations can be found via the links on the Wattle site, under the file named “ANU and College Policies, Program Information, Student Support Services and Assessment”. Alternatively, you can seek help through the Students Learning Development website.

Returning Assignments

Marked assessments and grades (including written feedback, where applicable) will be returned via the course Wattle site.

Extensions and Penalties

Extensions and late submission of assessment pieces are covered by the Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure. Extensions may be granted for assessment pieces that are not examinations or take-home examinations. If you need an extension, you must request an extension in writing on or before the due date. If you have documented and appropriate medical evidence that demonstrates you were not able to request an extension on or before the due date, you may be able to request it after the due date.

Resubmission of Assignments

No resubmission of assignments is accepted. Students are encouraged to consult with the course convener about an assignment prior to the due date.

Privacy Notice

The ANU has made a number of third party, online, databases available for students to use. Use of each online database is conditional on student end users first agreeing to the database licensor’s terms of service and/or privacy policy. Students should read these carefully. In some cases student end users will be required to register an account with the database licensor and submit personal information, including their: first name; last name; ANU email address; and other information.
In cases where student end users are asked to submit ‘content’ to a database, such as an assignment or short answers, the database licensor may only use the student’s ‘content’ in accordance with the terms of service – including any (copyright) licence the student grants to the database licensor. Any personal information or content a student submits may be stored by the licensor, potentially offshore, and will be used to process the database service in accordance with the licensors terms of service and/or privacy policy.
If any student chooses not to agree to the database licensor’s terms of service or privacy policy, the student will not be able to access and use the database. In these circumstances students should contact their lecturer to enquire about alternative arrangements that are available.

Distribution of grades policy

Academic Quality Assurance Committee monitors the performance of students, including attrition, further study and employment rates and grade distribution, and College reports on quality assurance processes for assessment activities, including alignment with national and international disciplinary and interdisciplinary standards, as well as qualification type learning outcomes.

Since first semester 1994, ANU uses a grading scale for all courses. This grading scale is used by all academic areas of the University.

Support for students

The University offers students support through several different services. You may contact the services listed below directly or seek advice from your Course Convener, Student Administrators, or your College and Course representatives (if applicable).

• ANU Health, safety & wellbeing for medical services, counselling, mental health and spiritual support
• ANU Diversity and inclusion for students with a disability or ongoing or chronic illness
• ANU Dean of Students for confidential, impartial advice and help to resolve problems between students and the academic or administrative areas of the University
• ANU Academic Skills and Learning Centre supports you make your own decisions about how you learn and manage your workload.
• ANU Counselling Centre promotes, supports and enhances mental health and wellbeing within the University student community.
• ANUSA supports and represents undergraduate and ANU College students
• PARSA supports and represents postgraduate and research students