Accurate forecasting of future events and their outcomes is a crucial input into a successful business or economic planning process. This course provides an introduction to the application of various forecasting techniques. The methods include trend curve extrapolation, smoothing, autoregressions, regression modelling, leading indicators. The course also looks at techniques for the evaluation of performance of forecasting methods and examines the role of forecasts in the decision making process. Students will learn how to use the various techniques in real world forecasting applications.

Learning Outcomes

Upon successful completion, students will have the knowledge and skills to:

1. Demonstrate an in-depth understanding various important concepts in forecasting and different approaches for modelling trend, seasonality and persistence
2. Use the analytical tools that econometricians employ to analyze data
3. Tailor-make models for their applications and use them to produce forecasts
4. Complete programming tasks, including reading and modifying existing codes
5. Demonstrate an understanding of journal articles that use intermediate forecasting methods

Research-Led Teaching

Theory and examples covered in the course are derived from research in the field of economics and time series analysis. In addition, students will have the opportunity to themselves engage in a major research task where they produce and evaluate forecasts on a time series of their choice.

Examination Material or equipment

This course has no examinations.

Required Resources

Textbook: Diebold, F., Forecasting in Economics, Business, Finance and Beyond. Available free online.

Programming Language: MATLAB. This is available for free download using the ANU license.

Recommended Resources

Whether you are on campus or studying remotely, there are a variety of online platforms you will use to participate in your study program. These could include videos for lectures and other instruction, two-way video conferencing for interactive learning, email and other messaging tools for communication, interactive web apps for formative and collaborative activities, print and/or photo/scan for handwritten work and drawings, and home-based assessment.

ANU outlines recommended student system requirements to ensure you are able to participate fully in your learning. Other information is also available about the various Learning Platforms you may use.

Staff Feedback

Students will be given feedback in the following forms in this course:

• Help Desk/Consultation/Office Hours times are available every week for students to seek feedback on their work
• General feedback on the assignments will be given to the class as a whole
• Some limited personal written comments on individual assignments may also be given to assignments

Student Feedback

ANU is committed to the demonstration of educational excellence and regularly seeks feedback from students. Students are encouraged to offer feedback directly to their Course Convener or through their College and Course representatives (if applicable). Feedback can also be provided to Course Conveners and teachers via the Student Experience of Learning & Teaching (SELT) feedback program. SELT surveys are confidential and also provide the Colleges and ANU Executive with opportunities to recognise excellent teaching, and opportunities for improvement.

Class Schedule

Week/Session	Summary of Activities	Assessment
1	Introduction to Forecasting
2	Introduction to Forecasting
3	Ad Hoc Forecasting Models
4	Ad Hoc Forecasting Models	Assignment 1 due week 4
5	Ad Hoc Forecasting Models
6	Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Forecast Accuracy
7	Maximum Likelihood Estimation
8	ARMA Models	Assignment 2 due week 8
9	ARMA Models, Autoregressive factor analysis
10	ARMA Models, VAR Models
11	ARCH Models	Assignment 3 due week 11
12	State Space Models	Personal Project due 'Week 13'

Tutorial Registration

Tutorials this semester will be delivered on-campus. An online tutorial will be available for those unable to make it to Canberra due to travel restrictions.

You are expected to attend one tutorial each week from Week 2 onwards. ANU utilises MyTimetable to enable students to view the timetable for their enrolled courses, browse, then self-allocate to small teaching activities / tutorials so they can better plan their time. Find out more on the Timetable webpage. https://www.anu.edu.au/students/program-administration/timetabling].

Assessment Summary

Assessment task	Value	Due Date	Return of assessment	Learning Outcomes
Assignment 1	25 %	19/08/2022	02/09/2022	1,2,3
Assignment 2	25 %	30/09/2022	14/10/2022	1,2,3
Assignment 3	25 %	22/10/2022	04/11/2022	1,2,3
Major Project	25 %	*	*	1,2,3

* If the Due Date and Return of Assessment date are blank, see the Assessment Tab for specific Assessment Task details

Policies

ANU has educational policies, procedures and guidelines , which are designed to ensure that staff and students are aware of the University’s academic standards, and implement them. Students are expected to have read the Academic Integrity Rule before the commencement of their course. Other key policies and guidelines include:

• Academic Integrity Policy and Procedure
• Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure
• Special Assessment Consideration Guideline and General Information 
• Student Surveys and Evaluations
• Deferred Examinations
• Student Complaint Resolution Policy and Procedure
• Code of practice for teaching and learning

Assessment Requirements

The ANU is using Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the Academic Skills website. In rare cases where online submission using Turnitin software is not technically possible; or where not using Turnitin software has been justified by the Course Convener and approved by the Associate Dean (Education) on the basis of the teaching model being employed; students shall submit assessment online via ‘Wattle’ outside of Turnitin, or failing that in hard copy, or through a combination of submission methods as approved by the Associate Dean (Education). The submission method is detailed below.

Moderation of Assessment

Marks that are allocated during Semester are to be considered provisional until formalised by the College examiners meeting at the end of each Semester. If appropriate, some moderation of marks might be applied prior to final results being released.

Participation

Delivery of this course will be on campus. An online tutorial will be run for those who are unable to reach Canberra due to travel restrictions. Aspects of the delivery will be asynchronous. However, there will be synchronous activities also taking place. Details on the delivery of this course and expectations of student participation are outlined in further detail on the Wattle course site in O-week. Attendance at synchronous activities, while not compulsory, is expected in line with “Code of Practice for Teaching and Learning”, clause 2 paragraph (b).

Course content will be delivered through pre-recorded lecture modules, together with a weekly live face-to-face workshop. Echo360 recordings of the workshop will be available.

Tutorials for this course are a discussion-based class. Providing worked solutions would not effectively compensate for missing a tutorial. Students who, through unavoidable and unplanned occurrences, are unable to attend a tutorial one week are encouraged to work through the problems and attend a consultation session for discussion and solutions.

Tutorials will be a mix of theoretical and applied analysis. As the purpose of programming/applied problems is to have students work with the software, 'solutions' to computer lab problems may not be provided.

Examination(s)

None

Assessment Task 1

Assignment 1

This is a take-home assignment consisting of a mixture of theory and applied work in forecasting. They will be submitted using Turnitin on Wattle. This assignment is worth EITHER 20% or 25%, whichever maximises the student's overall grade. Further details on the assignment will be given on Wattle, no later than two weeks before the due date.

Assessment Task 2

Assignment 2

This is a take-home assignment consisting of a mixture of theory and applied work in forecasting. They will be submitted using Turnitin on Wattle. This assignment is worth EITHER 20% or 25%, whichever maximises the student's overall grade. Further details on the assignment will be given on Wattle, no later than two weeks before the due date.

Assessment Task 3

Assignment 3

This is a take-home assignment consisting of a mixture of theory and applied work in forecasting. They will be submitted using Turnitin on Wattle. This assignment is worth EITHER 20% or 25%, whichever maximises the student's overall grade. Further details on the assignment will be given on Wattle, no later than two weeks before the due date.

Assessment Task 4

Major Project

In this work you will produce an original forecast using a data series of your choice, and compare your forecast to the actual data when it is released. The major project is worth EITHER 25% or 40%, whichever maximises the students overall grade. Further details on the assignment will be given on Wattle by the end of Week 3.

The main report of the Major Project will be due during the final exam period, as it is the main summative assessment for the course.

The final due date for the major project will depend on the dataset you choose, but will always be within the final exam period.

Academic Integrity

Academic integrity is a core part of the ANU culture as a community of scholars. The University’s students are an integral part of that community. The academic integrity principle commits all students to engage in academic work in ways that are consistent with, and actively support, academic integrity, and to uphold this commitment by behaving honestly, responsibly and ethically, and with respect and fairness, in scholarly practice.

The University expects all staff and students to be familiar with the academic integrity principle, the Academic Integrity Rule 2021, the Policy: Student Academic Integrity and Procedure: Student Academic Integrity, and to uphold high standards of academic integrity to ensure the quality and value of our qualifications.

The Academic Integrity Rule 2021 is a legal document that the University uses to promote academic integrity, and manage breaches of the academic integrity principle. The Policy and Procedure support the Rule by outlining overarching principles, responsibilities and processes. The Academic Integrity Rule 2021 commences on 1 December 2021 and applies to courses commencing on or after that date, as well as to research conduct occurring on or after that date. Prior to this, the Academic Misconduct Rule 2015 applies.

 

The University commits to assisting all students to understand how to engage in academic work in ways that are consistent with, and actively support academic integrity. All coursework students must complete the online Academic Integrity Module (Epigeum), and Higher Degree Research (HDR) students are required to complete research integrity training. The Academic Integrity website provides information about services available to assist students with their assignments, examinations and other learning activities, as well as understanding and upholding academic integrity.

Online Submission

You will be required to electronically sign a declaration as part of the submission of your assignment. Please keep a copy of the assignment for your records. Unless an exemption has been approved by the Associate Dean (Education) submission must be through Turnitin.

Hardcopy Submission

For some forms of assessment (hand written assignments, art works, laboratory notes, etc.) hard copy submission is appropriate when approved by the Associate Dean (Education). Hard copy submissions must utilise the Assignment Cover Sheet. Please keep a copy of tasks completed for your records.

Late Submission

Individual assessment tasks may or may not allow for late submission. Policy regarding late submission is detailed below:

• Late submission not permitted. If submission of assessment tasks without an extension after the due date is not permitted, a mark of 0 will be awarded.

Referencing Requirements

The Academic Skills website has information to assist you with your writing and assessments. The website includes information about Academic Integrity including referencing requirements for different disciplines. There is also information on Plagiarism and different ways to use source material.

Returning Assignments

Assignments will be returned through Wattle.

Extensions and Penalties

Extensions and late submission of assessment pieces are covered by the Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure. Extensions may be granted for assessment pieces that are not examinations or take-home examinations. If you need an extension, you must request an extension in writing on or before the due date. If you have documented and appropriate medical evidence that demonstrates you were not able to request an extension on or before the due date, you may be able to request it after the due date.

Resubmission of Assignments

No resubmission of assignments will be permitted.

Privacy Notice

The ANU has made a number of third party, online, databases available for students to use. Use of each online database is conditional on student end users first agreeing to the database licensor’s terms of service and/or privacy policy. Students should read these carefully. In some cases student end users will be required to register an account with the database licensor and submit personal information, including their: first name; last name; ANU email address; and other information.
In cases where student end users are asked to submit ‘content’ to a database, such as an assignment or short answers, the database licensor may only use the student’s ‘content’ in accordance with the terms of service – including any (copyright) licence the student grants to the database licensor. Any personal information or content a student submits may be stored by the licensor, potentially offshore, and will be used to process the database service in accordance with the licensors terms of service and/or privacy policy.
If any student chooses not to agree to the database licensor’s terms of service or privacy policy, the student will not be able to access and use the database. In these circumstances students should contact their lecturer to enquire about alternative arrangements that are available.

Distribution of grades policy

Academic Quality Assurance Committee monitors the performance of students, including attrition, further study and employment rates and grade distribution, and College reports on quality assurance processes for assessment activities, including alignment with national and international disciplinary and interdisciplinary standards, as well as qualification type learning outcomes.

Since first semester 1994, ANU uses a grading scale for all courses. This grading scale is used by all academic areas of the University.

Support for students

The University offers students support through several different services. You may contact the services listed below directly or seek advice from your Course Convener, Student Administrators, or your College and Course representatives (if applicable).

• ANU Health, safety & wellbeing for medical services, counselling, mental health and spiritual support
• ANU Access and inclusion for students with a disability or ongoing or chronic illness
• ANU Dean of Students for confidential, impartial advice and help to resolve problems between students and the academic or administrative areas of the University
• ANU Academic Skills and Learning Centre supports you make your own decisions about how you learn and manage your workload.
• ANU Counselling Centre promotes, supports and enhances mental health and wellbeing within the University student community.
• ANUSA supports and represents undergraduate and ANU College students
• PARSA supports and represents postgraduate and research students