• Class Number 6083
• Term Code 3260
• Class Info
• Unit Value 6 units
• Mode of Delivery In Person
• COURSE CONVENER
• Dr Chen Tang
• LECTURER
• Dr Chen Tang
• Class Dates
• Class Start Date 25/07/2022
• Class End Date 28/10/2022
• Census Date 31/08/2022
• Last Date to Enrol 01/08/2022
SELT Survey Results

Regression Modelling for Actuarial Studies (STAT6014)

This is a course in applied statistics that studies the use of regression techniques for examining relationships between variables. Ordinary linear models and generalised linear models are covered. The course emphasizes the principles of statistical modelling through the iterative process of fitting a model, examining the fit to assess imperfections in the model and suggest alternative models, and continuing until a satisfactory model is reached. Both steps in this process require the use of a computer: model fitting uses various numerical algorithms, and model assessment involves extensive use of graphical displays. The R statistical computing package is used as an integral part of the course.

## Learning Outcomes

Upon successful completion, students will have the knowledge and skills to:

1. Demonstrate a thorough understanding of the R statistical computing language, particularly the graphical capabilities;
2. Fit simple linear regression models, interpret model parameters and relate these back to the underlying research question;
3. Analyse and interpret relationships between a response variable and a covariate;
4. Analyse and interpret relationships between a response variable and several covariates;
5. Assess and refine simple and multiple linear regression models based on diagnostic measures, including identifying and discuss the implications of outlying and influential data points;
6. Explore and discuss a useful multiple linear regression model from a number of competing models; and,
7. Define and describe the features of a Generalised Linear Model (GLM), fit GLM models, assess and refine the models based on diagnostic measures, and interpret model output.

## Research-Led Teaching

The material covered in this course covers established principles in actuarial work and academia.

Students will need a non-programmable scientific calculator.

## Examination Material or equipment

Examination material and condition will be notified to all students via wattle and the examinations office.

## Required Texts

Applied Linear Regression Models (4th Edition): by Michael H. Kutner, Christopher J. Nachtsheim, John Neter. ISBN: 9780073014661

The ebook can be found on ANU library https://library.anu.edu.au/record=b6852478. The ANU Library has been requested to make hard copies of this book available as a 2 hour or 2 day loan.

## Technology and Software

The application of modern statistical techniques requires familiarity with a statistical computing package. Examples provided in lectures, tutorials, and work related to the assignments will entail the use of the statistical computer packages R and RStudio, which are freely available at www.r-project.org and https://www.rstudio.com. The program code used for examples provided in lectures and tutorials will be available on the course Wattle site.

For students who would like additional help getting started with R, I also recommend:

• Chester Ismay and Albert Y. Kim. (2017) Modern Dive: An Introduction to Statistical and Data Sciences via R . (Freely available from http://moderndive.com )

## Staff Feedback

Students will be given feedback (through both verbal and written comments) in the following forms in this course:

• To the whole class during lectures.

• Within tutorials.

• Individually during consultation hours.

Students will also be given online quiz feedback on Wattle and written comments in the marked assignments.

## Student Feedback

ANU is committed to the demonstration of educational excellence and regularly seeks feedback from students. Students are encouraged to offer feedback directly to their Course Convener or through their College and Course representatives (if applicable). The feedback given in these surveys is anonymous and provides the Colleges, University Education Committee and Academic Board with opportunities to recognise excellent teaching, and opportunities for improvement. The Surveys and Evaluation website provides more information on student surveys at ANU and reports on the feedback provided on ANU courses.

## Other Information

Support for Students

The University offers a number of support services for students. Information on these is available online from http://students.anu.edu.au/studentlife/

Communication via Email

If I, or anyone in the School, College or University administration, need to contact you, we will do so via your official ANU student email address, which you need to check regularly. If you have any questions for the teaching and course convenor make sure you email them using your ANU email address. Emails from personal email accounts will not be answered.

Announcements

Assessment Requirements

Any student identified, either during the current semester or in retrospect, as having used ghost writing services will be investigated under the University’s Academic Misconduct Rule.

Scaling

Your final mark for the course will be based on the raw marks allocated for each of your assessment items. However, your final mark may not be the same number as produced by that formula, as marks may be scaled. Any scaling applied will preserve the rank order of raw marks (i.e. if your raw mark exceeds that of another student, then your scaled mark will exceed the scaled mark of that student), and may be either up or down.

Referencing Requirements

In assignments and exams, students must appropriately reference any results, words or ideas that they take from another source which is not their own. A guide can be found at https://academicskills.anu.edu.au/resources/handouts/referencing-basics.

Co-Teaching

STAT2014 shares the same lecture content and assignments with STAT2008, STAT4038, STAT6014 and STAT6038, however these cohorts may have separate tutorials and different assessments. Students in STAT2014 also have some additional lecture content that STAT2008 students are not required to take. The different cohorts of students will also be treated separately in grading and any scaling that is applied. Contact the convener of the Bachelor of Actuarial Studies if you are unsure whether to enrol in STAT2008 or

## Class Schedule

Week/Session Summary of Activities Assessment
1 Introduction. Getting started with R. Simple Linear Regression (revision). Parameter interpretation/estimation. No tutorials in week 1
2 Properties of least squares estimators. ANOVA.
3 Hypothesis testing and interval estimation in a SLR context. Prediction intervals.
4 Regression diagnostics (residual plots). Outliers and influential observations.
5 Scale transformations. Matrix approach to linear regression. Wattle Quiz
6 Introduction to Multiple Regression. Model interpretation and estimation. GLM Introduction, Exponential Family, Maximum Likelihood Estimator. Submission of Assignment 1 via Wattle
7 Model interpretation continued. Binary Logistic Regression and Model Diagnostics.
8 ANOVA for multiple regression. Sequential sum of squares. Binomial Logistic Regression, Dummy Variable.
9 Qualitative covariates in multiple regression. Poisson Log-linear Regression. Release of Assignment 2 via Wattle
10 Model diagnostics. Outlier detection. Types of residuals. Influence diagnostics. Multicollinearity. Model Diagnostics for Binomial Logistic Regression and Poisson Log-linear Regression.
11 Model selection and criteria for comparing models. Gamma Regression and Model Diagnostics. Submission of Assignment 2 via Wattle
12 Course review. There will be a final exam during the university examination period. More information and instructions regarding final exams will be provided no later than week 10.

## Tutorial Registration

Tutorials will be available on campus, live through scheduled Zoom sessions, and as pre-recorded videos. ANU utilises MyTimetable to enable students to view the timetable for their enrolled courses, browse, then self-allocate to small teaching activities / tutorials so they can better plan their time. Find out more on the Timetable webpage (https://www.anu.edu.au/students/program-administration/timetabling).

## Assessment Summary

Assessment task Value Due Date Return of assessment Learning Outcomes
Wattle Quiz 5 % 28/08/2022 28/08/2022 2-3
Assignment 1 15 % 02/09/2022 16/09/2022 1-3
Assignment 2 15 % 21/10/2022 31/10/2022 1-5
Final Examination 65 % 03/11/2022 30/11/2022 1-6

* If the Due Date and Return of Assessment date are blank, see the Assessment Tab for specific Assessment Task details

## Policies

ANU has educational policies, procedures and guidelines, which are designed to ensure that staff and students are aware of the University’s academic standards, and implement them. Students are expected to have read the Academic Misconduct Rule before the commencement of their course. Other key policies and guidelines include:

## Assessment Requirements

The ANU is using Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the Academic Integrity . In rare cases where online submission using Turnitin software is not technically possible; or where not using Turnitin software has been justified by the Course Convener and approved by the Associate Dean (Education) on the basis of the teaching model being employed; students shall submit assessment online via ‘Wattle’ outside of Turnitin, or failing that in hard copy, or through a combination of submission methods as approved by the Associate Dean (Education). The submission method is detailed below.

## Moderation of Assessment

Marks that are allocated during Semester are to be considered provisional until formalised by the College examiners meeting at the end of each Semester. If appropriate, some moderation of marks might be applied prior to final results being released.

## Participation

Lectures and workshops will be pre-recorded. Consultations will be live through Zoom. Tutorials will be available on campus, live through scheduled Zoom sessions, and as pre-recorded videos. Information regarding enrolments for these options will be provided on Wattle during O-week, prior to the start of the semester.

## Examination(s)

Any student identified, either during the current semester or in retrospect, as having used ghost writing services will be investigated under the University’s Academic Misconduct Rule. Centrally scheduled examinations through Examinations, Graduations & Prizes will be timetabled prior to the examination period. Please check ANU Timetabling for further information.

Value: 5 %
Due Date: 28/08/2022
Return of Assessment: 28/08/2022
Learning Outcomes: 2-3

Wattle Quiz

The students are to complete this quiz individually. The quiz will be designed to cover materials from Week 1 to Week 4 and be available for a short window in Week 5. It is worth 5% of the final raw score. The information about the quiz will be announced in Week 4 on Wattle. Under no circumstances will the students be able to attempt the quiz outside of the allocated time period. Feedback will be provided once the quiz window is closed.

Value: 15 %
Due Date: 02/09/2022
Return of Assessment: 16/09/2022
Learning Outcomes: 1-3

Assignment 1

The students are to complete this assignment individually. This assignment is designed to cover materials about Simple Linear Regression. It is worth 15% of the final raw score and is not redeemable. The assignment and further details will be made available in week 4 on Wattle. It will be due on Friday 5pm, Canberra time, in Week 6. It will involve using R to analyse data from a case study, then organise and edit the R output and prepare a written report on your analyses, as well as some proofs.

Value: 15 %
Due Date: 21/10/2022
Return of Assessment: 31/10/2022
Learning Outcomes: 1-5

Assignment 2

The students are to complete this assignment individually. This assignment is designed to cover materials about Multiple Regression. It is worth 15% of the final raw score and is not redeemable. The assignment and further details will be made available in week 9 on Wattle. It will be due on Friday 5pm, Canberra time, in Week 11. It will involve using R to analyse data from a case study, then organise and edit the R output and prepare a written report on your analyses, as well as some proofs.

Value: 65 %
Due Date: 03/11/2022
Return of Assessment: 30/11/2022
Learning Outcomes: 1-6

Final Examination

The students are to complete this assessment individually. The final examination will be a Wattle-based online exam during the university examination period at the end of semester. The final examination will be around 3 hours long and cover the entire syllabus. The final examination is worth 65% of the final raw score. Examination materials and conditions will be notified to all students via Wattle no later than Week 10 of the semester. The exam will be centrally timetabled, and details of the final examination timetable will be made available on the ANU Timetabling website.

Academic integrity is a core part of the ANU culture as a community of scholars. At its heart, academic integrity is about behaving ethically, committing to honest and responsible scholarly practice and upholding these values with respect and fairness.

The ANU commits to assisting all members of our community to understand how to engage in academic work in ways that are consistent with, and actively support academic integrity. The ANU expects staff and students to be familiar with the academic integrity principle and Academic Misconduct Rule, uphold high standards of academic integrity and act ethically and honestly, to ensure the quality and value of the qualification that you will graduate with.

## Online Submission

You will be required to electronically sign a declaration as part of the submission of your assignment. Please keep a copy of the assignment for your records. Unless an exemption has been approved by the Associate Dean (Education) submission must be through Turnitin.

## Hardcopy Submission

There is no hardcopy submission in the course.

## Late Submission

No submission of assessment tasks without an extension after the due date will be permitted. If an assessment task is not submitted by the due date, a mark of 0 will be awarded.

## Referencing Requirements

Accepted academic practice for referencing sources that you use in presentations can be found via the links on the Wattle site, under the file named “ANU and College Policies, Program Information, Student Support Services and Assessment”. Alternatively, you can seek help through the Students Learning Development website.

## Returning Assignments

The marked assignments will be returned online.

## Extensions and Penalties

Extensions and late submission of assessment pieces are covered by the Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure. Extensions may be granted for assessment pieces that are not examinations or take-home examinations. If you need an extension, you must request an extension in writing on or before the due date. If you have documented and appropriate medical evidence that demonstrates you were not able to request an extension on or before the due date, you may be able to request it after the due date.

## Resubmission of Assignments

It will not be possible for assignments to be resubmitted.

## Privacy Notice

The ANU has made a number of third party, online, databases available for students to use. Use of each online database is conditional on student end users first agreeing to the database licensor’s terms of service and/or privacy policy. Students should read these carefully. In some cases student end users will be required to register an account with the database licensor and submit personal information, including their: first name; last name; ANU email address; and other information.
If any student chooses not to agree to the database licensor’s terms of service or privacy policy, the student will not be able to access and use the database. In these circumstances students should contact their lecturer to enquire about alternative arrangements that are available.

Academic Quality Assurance Committee monitors the performance of students, including attrition, further study and employment rates and grade distribution, and College reports on quality assurance processes for assessment activities, including alignment with national and international disciplinary and interdisciplinary standards, as well as qualification type learning outcomes.

Since first semester 1994, ANU uses a grading scale for all courses. This grading scale is used by all academic areas of the University.

## Support for students

The University offers students support through several different services. You may contact the services listed below directly or seek advice from your Course Convener, Student Administrators, or your College and Course representatives (if applicable).

## Convener

 Dr Chen Tang 02 6125 5871 U4616734@anu.edu.au

### Research Interests

functional data analysis, functional time series analysis, mortality forecasting

### Dr Chen Tang

 Tuesday 15:00 17:00 Tuesday 15:00 17:00 By Appointment

## Instructor

 Dr Chen Tang 02 6125 5871 chen.tang@anu.edu.au

### Dr Chen Tang

 Tuesday 15:00 17:00 Tuesday 15:00 17:00 By Appointment