Quantitative assessment plays an important role in macroeconomics and macroeconomic policymaking. This course will provide students with skills in two major analytical tools for quantitative evaluation in macroeconomics, particularly monetary policy: vector autoregressive (VAR) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. These tools are heavily used in the academic literature and in policy analysis in central banks and international organisations. Students will use these methods to be able to identify the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations, gauge how structural shocks affect macroeconomic variables dynamically (impulse responses), forecast, and explore optimal policies.

Learning Outcomes

Upon successful completion, students will have the knowledge and skills to:

1. Demonstrate capacity in utilising key tools for macroeconomic policy analysis such as the VAR and DSGE methods.
2. Understand policy and discussion papers published by central banks and international organisations.
3. Undertake applied research on monetary policy and central banking using VAR methods.
4. Utilise the DSGE approach to analyse optimal monetary and fiscal policies.
5. Explain advanced macroeconomic concepts in written form.

Recommended Resources

The textbooks below are considered the standard textbooks for modern central banking and are useful for understanding the above topics. Pick and choose relative to your needs.

Enders, Walter. 2014. Applied Econometric Time Series. 4th ed. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.

Galí, Jordi. 2008. Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Hamilton, James D. 1994. Time Series Analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Kilian, Lutz, and Helmut Lütkepohl. 2017. Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Lütkepohl, Helmut. 2005. New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Berlin: Springer.

Romer, David. 2019. Advanced Macroeconomics. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Sims, Christopher A. 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality." Econometrica 48 (1): 1–48.

Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. 2001. "Vector Autoregressions." Journal of Economic Perspectives 15 (4): 101–15.

Walsh, Carl E. 2010. Monetary Theory and Policy. 3rd ed. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Wickens, Michael. 2008. Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Woodford, Michael. 2003. Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Staff Feedback

Students will be given feedback in the following forms in this course:

• Written comments
• Verbal comments
• Feedback to the whole class, to groups, to individuals, focus groups

Student Feedback

ANU is committed to the demonstration of educational excellence and regularly seeks feedback from students. Students are encouraged to offer feedback directly to their Course Convener or through their College and Course representatives (if applicable). The feedback given in these surveys is anonymous and provides the Colleges, University Education Committee and Academic Board with opportunities to recognise excellent teaching, and opportunities for improvement. The Surveys and Evaluation website provides more information on student surveys at ANU and reports on the feedback provided on ANU courses.

Other Information

CRAWFORD ACADEMIC SKILLS

The Crawford School of Public Policy has its own Academic Skills team dedicated to helping students to understand the academic expectations of studying at Crawford and succeed in their chosen program of study. Through individual appointments, course-embedded workshops and online resources, Crawford Academic Skills provides tailored advice to students keen to develop their academic reading, thinking, planning, writing, and presentation skills. 

Class Schedule

Week/Session	Summary of Activities	Assessment
1	24-25 June, VAR Models - Short Run RestrictionsExample references:- Sims, Christopher, 1980, Macroeconomics and Reality, Econometrica.- Christiano, Lawrence, Martin Eichenbaum, and Charles Evans, 1999, Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned to What End? Handbook of Macroeconomics.- Leeper, Eric, Christopher Sims and Tao Zha, 1996, What Does Monetary Policy Do? Brookings Papers on Economic Activities.	Concepts will be demonstrated using EViews and R
2	1-2 July, VAR Models - Long Run RestrictionsExample references:- Blanchard, Olivier and Danny Quah, 1989, "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review.- Gali, Jordi and Pau Ravanal, 2005, Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the Real Business Cycle Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data? NBER Macroeconomics Annual.
3	8-9 July VAR Models- Sign Restrictions and DSGE Models - Real Business Cycle ModelExample References:- Canova, Fabio, and Gianni De Nicol, 2002, "Monetary Disturbances Matter for Business Fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics.- Uhlig, Harald, 2005, "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics.- Fry, R. and Pagan, A.R., 2011, "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions", Journal of Economic Literature- Kydland, Finn and Edward Prescott, 1982, "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica.- King, Robert, Charles Plosser, and Sergio Rebelo, 1988, "Production, Growth and Business Cycles : I. The Basic Neoclassical Model," Journal of Monetary Economics.	Concepts will be demonstrated using Dynare
4	15-16 July DSGE Models - New Keynesian Model- Clardia, Richard, Mark Gertler and Jordi Gali, 1999, "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature- Christiano, Lawrence, Martin Eichenbaum, and Charles Evans, 2005, Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy, Journal of Political Economy.
5	22-23 July Scenario Analysis for Monetary Policy - G-Cubed Model (Optional)https://documentation.gcubed.com/	Concepts will be demonstrated using G-Cubed

Assessment Summary

Assessment task	Value	Due Date	Return of assessment	Learning Outcomes
Proposal for the Research Paper in Assessment Task 3	10 %	05/07/2026	15/07/2026	1,2,3,5
Exam	40 %	31/07/2026	07/08/2026	1,2,3,4,5
Research Paper using the VAR approach	50 %	27/08/2026	24/09/2026	1,2,3,5

* If the Due Date and Return of Assessment date are blank, see the Assessment Tab for specific Assessment Task details

Policies

ANU has educational policies, procedures and guidelines, which are designed to ensure that staff and students are aware of the University’s academic standards, and implement them. Students are expected to have read the Academic Misconduct Rule before the commencement of their course. Other key policies and guidelines include:

• Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure
• Special Assessment Consideration Policy and General Information
• Student Surveys and Evaluations
• Deferred Examinations
• Student Complaint Resolution Policy and Procedure

Assessment Requirements

The ANU is using Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the ANU Online website Students may choose not to submit assessment items through Turnitin. In this instance you will be required to submit, alongside the assessment item itself, hard copies of all references included in the assessment item.

Moderation of Assessment

Marks that are allocated during Semester are to be considered provisional until formalised by the College examiners meeting at the end of each Semester. If appropriate, some moderation of marks might be applied prior to final results being released.

Examination(s)

The two-hour exam will be on practical questions on VAR and DSGE models. Details are to be advised.

Assessment Task 1

Proposal for the Research Paper in Assessment Task 3

Students write a research proposal outlining what they plan to do in their research paper in Assessment Task 3 of 600 words.

Assessment Task 2

Exam

The two-hour exam will be on practical questions on VAR and DSGE models. Details are to be advised.

Assessment Task 3

Research Paper using the VAR approach

Students write a short paper using a VAR approach of up to 3000 words. The paper must contain some new features, such as new data or new relationships among macroeconomic variables.

The evaluation of the assignments will be based on the three criteria below:

• whether the structure of the paper is consistent with the standard format in academic papers;
• how the students understand the basic theory of the VAR;
• how unique their findings are.

The ANU Crawford School of Public Policy's Word Limit and Penalty Guidelines apply to this assessment item.

Academic Integrity

Academic integrity is a core part of our culture as a community of scholars. At its heart, academic integrity is about behaving ethically. This means that all members of the community commit to honest and responsible scholarly practice and to upholding these values with respect and fairness. The Australian National University commits to embedding the values of academic integrity in our teaching and learning. We ensure that all members of our community understand how to engage in academic work in ways that are consistent with, and actively support academic integrity. The ANU expects staff and students to uphold high standards of academic integrity and act ethically and honestly, to ensure the quality and value of the qualification that you will graduate with. The University has policies and procedures in place to promote academic integrity and manage academic misconduct. Visit the following Academic honesty & plagiarism website for more information about academic integrity and what the ANU considers academic misconduct. The ANU offers a number of services to assist students with their assignments, examinations, and other learning activities. The Academic Skills and Learning Centre offers a number of workshops and seminars that you may find useful for your studies.

Online Submission

The ANU uses Turnitin to enhance student citation and referencing techniques, and to assess assignment submissions as a component of the University's approach to managing Academic Integrity. While the use of Turnitin is not mandatory, the ANU highly recommends Turnitin is used by both teaching staff and students. For additional information regarding Turnitin please visit the ANU Online website.

Hardcopy Submission

For some forms of assessment (hand written assignments, art works, laboratory notes, etc.) hard copy submission is appropriate when approved by the Associate Dean (Education). Hard copy submissions must utilise the Assignment Cover Sheet. Please keep a copy of tasks completed for your records.

Late Submission

No submission of assessment tasks without an extension after the due date will be permitted. If an assessment task is not submitted by the due date, a mark of 0 will be awarded.

Referencing Requirements

Accepted academic practice for referencing sources that you use in presentations can be found via the links on the Wattle site, under the file named “ANU and College Policies, Program Information, Student Support Services and Assessment”. Alternatively, you can seek help through the Students Learning Development website.

Extensions and Penalties

Extensions and late submission of assessment pieces are covered by the Student Assessment (Coursework) Policy and Procedure The Course Convener may grant extensions for assessment pieces that are not examinations or take-home examinations. If you need an extension, you must request an extension in writing on or before the due date. If you have documented and appropriate medical evidence that demonstrates you were not able to request an extension on or before the due date, you may be able to request it after the due date.

Privacy Notice

The ANU has made a number of third party, online, databases available for students to use. Use of each online database is conditional on student end users first agreeing to the database licensor’s terms of service and/or privacy policy. Students should read these carefully. In some cases student end users will be required to register an account with the database licensor and submit personal information, including their: first name; last name; ANU email address; and other information. In cases where student end users are asked to submit ‘content’ to a database, such as an assignment or short answers, the database licensor may only use the student’s ‘content’ in accordance with the terms of service — including any (copyright) licence the student grants to the database licensor. Any personal information or content a student submits may be stored by the licensor, potentially offshore, and will be used to process the database service in accordance with the licensors terms of service and/or privacy policy. If any student chooses not to agree to the database licensor’s terms of service or privacy policy, the student will not be able to access and use the database. In these circumstances students should contact their lecturer to enquire about alternative arrangements that are available.

Distribution of grades policy

Academic Quality Assurance Committee monitors the performance of students, including attrition, further study and employment rates and grade distribution, and College reports on quality assurance processes for assessment activities, including alignment with national and international disciplinary and interdisciplinary standards, as well as qualification type learning outcomes. Since first semester 1994, ANU uses a grading scale for all courses. This grading scale is used by all academic areas of the University.

Support for students

The University offers students support through several different services. You may contact the services listed below directly or seek advice from your Course Convener, Student Administrators, or your College and Course representatives (if applicable).

• ANU Health, safety & wellbeing for medical services, counselling, mental health and spiritual support
• ANU Diversity and inclusion for students with a disability or ongoing or chronic illness
• ANU Dean of Students for confidential, impartial advice and help to resolve problems between students and the academic or administrative areas of the University
• ANU Academic Skills and Learning Centre supports you make your own decisions about how you learn and manage your workload.
• ANU Counselling Centre promotes, supports and enhances mental health and wellbeing within the University student community.
• ANUSA supports and represents undergraduate and ANU College students
• PARSA supports and represents postgraduate and research students